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UA Eller College Arizona's Economy: First Quarter 2020 COVID-19 Interim Forecast Update

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Visit our website at azeconomy.org.  


April 1, 2020

Dear Arizona's Economy subscribers,

The staff of the Economic and Business Research Center are committed to providing you with the best economic analysis and data possible to track the arc of COVID-19 impacts on Arizona's economy. Our updated baseline forecast at this point is a recession likely as deep as the Great Recession. In this issue's "Arizona's Economy: a Shock to the System", director and lead forecaster, Dr. George Hammond, also examines likely scenarios for a speedy recovery once the virus is controlled. As always you can review and download the latest economic forecast data which has been dramatically revised to reflect the COVID outbreak. You will also want to check out the interview Dr. Hammond did this weekend with Lorraine Rivera on AZPM's Arizona 360, and find out "How exposed are Tucson's Industries to a COVID-19 Recession?"

The article "Coronavirus Update: Tracking High-Frequency Indicators of the Arizona Economy" explains the rationale for tracking the high-frequency indicators which you can now follow on the Arizona's Economy homepage:

  • Coronavirus new cases Arizona and AZ counties (daily)
  • Coronavirus cumulative cases U.S. (daily)
  • U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance (weekly)
  • Arizona initial claims for unemployment insurance (weekly)
  • U.S. hotel occupancy rates (weekly)
  • U.S. gross sales of movie tickets (weekly)
  • Number of U.S. movie releases (weekly)


Check back often for updates and as we add new indicators. These indicators will tell us a lot about how bad things are getting, but, they will also be early indicators of recovery.  Just scroll down our homepage. Use your cursor as a tooltip on the charts and download the data using the icon at the bottom of each table.

The staff of EBRC's Making Action Possible for Southern Arizona dashboard project are currently working to assess the scope and distribution of senior and other vulnerable populations in Arizona. Check back for that article in the next couple days.

The Economic and Business Research Center wishes you the very best in these challenging times.

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Tucson, Arizona 85721-0101
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